Predictors of a recession

There are no completely reliable predictors. These are regarded to be possible predictors.[4]
Stock market drops have preceded the beginning of recessions. However about half of the drops of 10% or more since 1946 have not been followed by recessions.[5] Also, approximately half of the stock market decline came after the beginning of recessions.
Inverted yield curve,[6] the model developed by Fed economist Jonathan Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. It is, however, not a definite indicator;[7] it is sometimes followed by a recession 6 to 18 months later.
The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims.[8]
Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (includes some of the above indicators).[9]